In 2026, the U.S. fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.6 births per woman, well below the 2.1 replacement rate. This reflects a larger global trend affecting nearly two-thirds of the world. As birth rates decline, the U.S. faces a shrinking workforce, aging population, and growing pressure on programs like Medicare and Social Security. In this inquiry, students grapple with the factors behind declining birth rates and consider what these trends might mean for the future.
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About the inquiry
Compelling Question
What’s behind the baby bust?
Standards
D2.His.2.9-12. Analyze change and continuity in historical eras.
Instructional Snapshot
Class begins by analyzing recent data regarding declining birth rates. The teacher then asks students to consider: Why would countries be concerned about declining birth rates? The teacher may supplement discussion with additional concerns (e.g., Social Security replacement rates, consumer spending, etc.)
Students are then assigned to research further one of the possible factors affecting birth rates: child-raising costs, marriage rates, education trends, urbanization, and economic uncertainty. As students research, they should look for evidence of their findings (e.g., charts, statistics, and excerpts from studies) to support their inquiry. Students then share their findings with the class. Finally, students work in small groups to evaluate all the research data and identify what it might suggest as the strongest correlation to lowering birth rates.
Formative Tasks
COLLABORATE: Brainstorm reasons why a country might be concerned about declining birth rates.
PRODUCE: Research one possible driver of birth rate decline. Report findings back to the class.
DELIBERATE: Identify which research shows the strongest correlation with birth rate trends.
Extension: Draft recommendations for government policies to influence birth rates.
Sources
Source A: Birth Rates, 1910-2026, National Center for Health
Source B: Topical Student-Researched Data
Summative Performance Task
No data found.
Taking Informed Action
No data found.